How it was possible to build in thirty years a prosperous country with an enviable GDP per capita, which has become one of the largest financial centers in the world, with harmonious national-ethnic relations and an enviable level of social security of its citizens from a former impoverished Japanese colony with a population that was at enmity with each other (Chinese, Indians, Malays, etc.), in the complete absence of resources (they even exported drinking water and sand for construction from the mainland)? Lee Kuan Yew, the permanent Prime Minister of Singapore for 40 years, writes about this in his book. His book has become a reference book for many politicians of our time. And Margaret Thatcher, who specifically studied the experience of Lee Kuan Yew, said that in his entire cadence he never made a mistake. It is shameful not to read this book, and to reject the best experience is stupid.
Unfortunately, the path to political sovereignty and economic stability may not be as successful and direct as in the Singapore precedent. For example, during the collapse of the USSR, the Baltic countries were the first to face economic difficulties. The structure of the Soviet economy was such that most of the enterprises worked for the defense industry, another part was critically dependent on raw materials and components from different republics of the Union, the third part was generally subsidized and was below the level of profitability. With the rupture of production ties and the crisis of non-payments, the vast majority of production stopped, while the Central Bank stopped sending money to the localities. None of the Balts had their own currency yet. Under such conditions of the task, how to solve the problem of providing the population with the most necessary things? There is no work, no salary, and no money (banknotes, notes, coins) for payment! Under such circumstances, the people go out into the streets, demand to drive the reformers in the neck and return everything back to the USSR, when there was money, salaries, pensions, etc.
The Estonians then got out of this situation by selling the ruble bills that had gone out of circulation as a result of the monetary reform for dollars to the Chechens. And the first Prime Minister of Lithuania was forced to travel around Europe, asking for help and offering to buy socks and knitwear from Lithuanians. The path to real economic independence was very difficult, they had to endure hardships to the very nostrils …
On the way to building the successful national economic complex, Tatars and Bashkorts are unlikely to be able to “without strain” bypass all the pitfalls on the chosen state-forming course. And they need to prepare not for the fact that their cherished dream will immediately come true, it will be possible to start a “fair” distribution of assets and finally “wipe the nose” of Tatar/Bashkort neighbor. It is really worth thinking about how to survive in this difficult period.
Why does the author even raise such a question now? He is forced to this by the tone of reasoning in the chats and social networks of our peoples. First of all, they cut and redraw the maps of the republics there. Then they plan how to deport the cunning Tatars or “down” the impudent Bashkorts. This is followed by plans for the construction of “crystal airports” and super-trunk oil pipelines in … (here enthusiasts have not yet thought through, so the details are passed over in silence). Someone proposes to immediately build military factories and form a modern national army (clearly, for defense against “cunning Tatars” or “impudent Bashkorts”). Among the dreamers there are adherents of the theory “foreign countries (UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) will help us”…
In short, “Manilov’s” beautiful-hearted fantasies are combined with “Sharikov’s” plans of “cosmic scale and cosmic stupidity” …
At the same time, simple questions, such as “Where to get money for all this?” or “How to fight off possible Russian pressure (even armed)?” cause misunderstanding and irritation among the forum dreamers.
Perhaps they have a somewhat different picture of building the independent Tatarstan/Bashkortostan? Such a patriotic dreamer is summoned to the Kremlin – and the Chief Russian leader asks him, “Well, Ravil, will we continue to manage together?” And our Ravil replies, “Only if I myself want or ask for help to subdue my neighbor militarily (as you already understood – cunning Tatars or impudent Bashkorts). As for the rest, you go to h … we will divide everything ourselves! And here the Russian Chief says, “Well, then it’s up to you, Ravil, here is a hundred billion of money for development and every success to you! And if there are any misunderstandings with the neighbor (with “cunning” or “impudent”), then you immediately call us, we will always help!” They shook hands in farewell and parted as good friends.
Today it is very difficult to destroy such a picture of an imaginary free future, and oppositional Tatar and Bashkort politicians who offer to focus not on interethnic conflicts, but on a real struggle with the Empire and the preparation of specific plans for socio-economic survival, are ostracized. For example, the Bashkort politician R. Gabbasov and the Tatar R. Kashapov, who call for maintaining a balanced positive relationship between the Tatars and Bashkorts on the path of gaining independence, do not always find understanding – neither among their people, nor among strangers.
Even under the condition of a bloodless, “velvet” transfer of power in the republics into the hands of the national democratic forces, we all cannot avoid problems, they will pour in from everywhere, and the economy will put the hardest pressure on. To survive, we will have to focus on the most important thing, sacrifice something, make decisions accurately and quickly. And if we make a mistake and turn onto the path of creating new challenges, for example, by multiplying the number of our enemies, producing ethno-political conflicts or failed economic changes, then the acquired statehood may not be saved.
Can you imagine how happy the Russians will be then – both in the republic and outside! They will definitely say, “We knew it! The Chuchmeks will never succeed without Russia!” And what will we answer them?
Therefore, let’s not create new enemies, solve issues by consensus, not move borders, study the experience of successful reformers, remember that our main enemy is the Russian Empire (Russian Federation)!