I think many have noticed how the tone of Russian speaking heads has changed, from propagandists to political experts. Things are not going well, we have to think about options for events. Predictions began to include possible defeat in the war with Ukraine. This is considered a last resort, along with the Apocalypse. Like a frivolous and unlikely phenomenon. So it turns out that, on the one hand, they observe with their own eyes the course of the special military operation as not even chaos, but a paranoid sequence of insane steps of the supreme commander-in-chief, and on the other hand, they hope that somehow everything will dissolve by itself.
The Russian approach to planning is to replace analysis and calculation with dreams.
Chekhov, in describing the Russian intellectual, showed typical features of the latter – intelligence half with unwillingness. Look at the picture you get. At the head of the country is a paranoid, whose evil will is at least spared, ready to use tactical nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine, and in the country itself – a reluctant people with a dreamy intelligentsia waiting for the pregnancy to dissolve itself. However, the country is pregnant with turmoil.
Let’s say that the spring offensive, which Putin needs so much, will succeed… What then? Will the civilized world step back, stop supporting Ukraine and lift sanctions? Very unlikely, since Putin’s victory with the subsequent annexation of part of Ukrainian territory is a delayed catastrophe for the entire world civilization. It’s a carte blanche for other dictators who want to fight and redraw the map of the world. Xi Jinping, Erdoğan, Kim Jong-un, not to mention dozens of Arab and African dictators, will very quickly say, “So we can do it!” And everything will go to hell! China will resolve issues with Taiwan, Erdogan with Syria, the Great Fat Korean will deal with his compatriots in the South, wishing to join, as a donor, the powerful economy of the Republic of Korea… This is unlikely to be tolerated by the ‘collective West’. Civilized Europe and the strong America will no longer fit in such a world, so they will certainly not agree with it, even at the risk of a tactical nuclear explosion. By the way, NATO and America have well-thought-out moves in such a case. Do you remember the outrage of Putin (Bunker Grandpa) over the execution by the Americans in January 2020 of Iranian General Qasem Suleimani, commander of the IRGC? I mean, that he threatened America. Target air strike – and no general! Apparently, our ‘chief’ was hinted at the possible application of a weapon in case of a complete ‘failure’.
The West presents threats well, sees the map of events clearly, fears their apocalyptic development, tries to avoid them as much as possible, but does not rule out the worst. And I think it has stopped deluding itself, as Angela Merkel did, about Putin and Russia.
Perhaps the rumors of recent secret ‘consultations’ of US negotiators with Kremlin ‘affiliates’ are not entirely untrue. Their assessment as “the last American warning” is logical. Presumably, Putin’s wishful thinking convinced American “trusted persons” that he did not want to engage in serious negotiations based on a realistic assessment of the situation. The usual KGB lies, demagoguery and threats to turn the world to nuclear ashes have gone into action. Well, the Americans confirmed the diagnosis. And then, we can assume, followed by a cold-minded decision to switch from the tactics of ‘containment’ at the front to the tactics of ‘expulsion’ of the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, heavy armored vehicles, long-range high-precision ammunition, other necessary for the Ukrainians for the offensive, weapons and ammunition will go to the assistance of the Armed Forces. In the future, Ramstein may also consider the issue of supplying aircraft to the Air Force. As former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who recently arrived in the United States to negotiate with high-ranking politicians, said: “Ukrainians need to give everything they need and as soon as possible – this will be the best solution for Ukraine, the United States and will save American taxpayers’ money.”
Pragmatists in Russia understand this, but they can do nothing, because the top of the country is covered in blood and tied with a circular handrail. The predicted difficulties in the Russian economy, as a consequence of its transition to import substitution and military (negative) development, plus the growing threats from the national liberation movements of indigenous peoples, heighten the concerns of the Moscow ruling elite.
I think, as an option of relations with the civilized world, they consider the situation to be “reduced on the brakes”. As a matter of fact, the DB somehow restrains itself from fatigue, the physiological resource of it, God gives, is not eternal… Then, with the DB or another wise leader, demonstrating “solidity”, it will be possible to start crawling back a little, haggling concessions.
Boundless subterranean oceans of oil, immeasurable underground gas reserves, endless potato fields, and countless millions of Russian idiots are the main weapon of the Federation on which the military bet is made in Moscow.
In the future process of survival, this same ‘resource’ will become the main support of the economically weakened Kremlin regime. And, of course, the TV that tells about the great victory of Putin and Russia in the war with NATO and about the post-war difficulties that lie ahead under the wise leadership of the government. You just have to wait a little while, tighten your belts, and it will all be over, just stay out of your way and remain as before, apolitical and silent.