Putin is expected to do the impossible
Telegram-channel «SVR General» (t/n: SVR – Foreign Intelligence Service) called by a lot of political scientists a “former KGB officers’ dump”, published its own thoughts on the situation in Putin’s circle. The full text is below.
An interesting turn in Putin’s relationship with the Russian elite has happened in the last two days.
Before, at least prior to the war, at most – until March 29, political, enforcement and business elite were not only completely dependent on the President’s decisions, but also followed his every word, waiting for his opinion on every event and issue, not even mentioning every initiative had to be pre-approved by Putin.
It looks like the war changed a lot, though. We already pointed out the statement by Vladimir Medinskiy, advisor and President’s trusted person, on the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on March 29 in Turkey. Medinskiy only delivered the message approved by Putin himself, there is no way anything said was of his own initiative. Putin was trying to look for ways to get out of the military dead end, which is threatening to grow into a catastrophe for the Russian military and political leadership and for the country as a whole.
Безсумнівно, що особисто Путін, допустивши помилки в оцінці та розумінні ситуації та перспектив перед війною, завів себе та всіх учасників цього конфлікту в глухий кут.
In the last couple of days Putin has been getting reports that make the following obvious: continuing the armed conflict with the forces and resources that Russian military leadership has is futile and will only lead to loss of control in other directions and traditional spheres of influence.
Moreover, continuing the war with no quick and uncompromising victory clearly in sight, and it is definitely not, will lead to catastrophic economic consequences and a lasting crisis, which will only worsen.
Well aware of all these, through Medinskiy, Putin tried to gauge the reaction to a complete roll back, presenting as a small, but still a victory, the destruction of Ukrainian military infrastructure and military objects, as well as refusal to join NATO.
The response to these from the elite was so negative, that Putin immediately changed tactics and pretended there was no plan to retreat and all goals and tasks will be completed, which was communicated by authorized speakers.
Now Putin is a hostage of his elite, who are demanding huge and undeniable victories from their leader, pushing the President into an abyss of unsolvable problems. Putin, who just a couple of days ago held the so-called elite in fear and obedience, now has to follow their wishes and demands. And the elite and the majority of united russian society has one demand: he promised a complete and decisive victory with denazification and defeat of Ukraine, he should deliver it. At the moment, it looks like zugzwang and zeitnot for Putin and the country as a whole.
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