Divided Russia: risks and perspectives

Under the guise of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, the destructive war, which Russia called a “special military operation”, began the transition to a new world order, destroying the world order that had formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

One of the main tasks is to clarify the fate of Russia after the war, to identify the risks and opportunities that await us. By carrying out this task, we can be better prepared for the historically necessary process.

“Will the Soviet Union survive until 1984?”

The world, especially the Western countries, was unprepared for the collapse of the Soviet Union, and when the “Evil empire” collapsed, everyone was caught unprepared. Although dissident historian Andrei Amalrik wrote in 1969 the famous “Will the Soviet Union Survive 1984?”, he warned of the collapse of the “Evil Empire”. The warning came just a year after the Czechoslovak company, at a time when Russia was making great strides in space. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, though not in 1984, as Andrei Amalrik had warned.

JurajMesik, an expert with the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, wrote in the “Prepare for the Inevitable” section”Why should the West now discuss the collapse of the Russian Federation?” he shared his thoughts, I think it is time to discuss the collapse of Russia. JurajMesik wrote “Will the Russian Federation Survive 2031?”in 2016,in his article entitled Russia’s disintegration will take place in the third decade of the XXI century. The war against Ukraine has radically accelerated the development of this process.

Thus, the collapse of Russia is already seen as an inevitable process in the very near future. Of course, this process may be accelerated under the influence of various subjective factors and the decisions of individual politicians, or, conversely, may be slightly delayed.

We must not forget that Russia has authoritarianism, which is considered the weakest of the authoritarian regimes in terms of stability. With the collapse of the monarchy, which was considered the most stable of the autocratic regimes, the Russian Empire collapsed in 1917, and the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 with the collapse of the totalitarian system. When the authoritarian system headed by Putin collapses, the collapse of the Russian Federation will be inevitable.

Decay lines

It should be noted that the Kuril Islands are the territories of Japan, Karelia, Finland, the Far East, Tuva, Amur, Tambov and Siberia, China, and Derbent are the territories of Azerbaijan occupied by Russia. The future of Konigsberg (Kaliningrad), the capital of East Prussia for several centuries, cannot escape the attention of Europe, especially Germany. Estonia believes that more than five percent of its territory is occupied by Russia, and therefore wants to withdraw its signature from the agreement with the Russian Federation on the demarcation of land and sea borders, signed on February 18, 2014.

A more difficult process will be the collapse of the rest of Russia. Due to the lack of modern statehood experience of non-Russian peoples in Russia, the collapse of Russia may be cold in the world’s major political centers. This attitude can be replaced by an important approach of the Free Idel-Ural movement, such as the idea of creating a single state with a common border, economic space and collective security system covering Mordovia, Chuvashia, Mari El, Tatarstan, Udmurtia and Bashkortostan.

On the other hand, everyone should understand that despite the fact that only 25 percent of Russia’s population is non-Russian, it will not be possible to stop their emancipation efforts. Prior to the war in Ukraine, non-Russian emancipation efforts were thwarted by military-police measures and the purchase of ethnic elites at the expense of oil money. A military defeat in the war against Ukraine would significantly limit the use of military-police measures against the emancipation efforts of non-Russians.

Just as sanctions against Russia make it impossible to buylocal elites at the expenses of the oil, so Russian citizenship is no longer attractive. At a time when the Russian elite is increasingly denying Russian citizenship and even ethnicity, non-Russian ethnic elites are also faced with a choice. Dissatisfaction of regional elites has been growing for a long time. Sanctions against Russia’s military-political elite and their accusations of war crimes are a very important factor in keeping regional elites away from the center. Nationaldiscrimination and humiliation of national minorities in Russia will be another important factor triggering the post-war decentralization.

Morgenthau plan

After February 24, there is no chance for Russia to remain within its current borders.

Sanctions have isolated Russia from the global economy, as well as broken economic ties between the subjects of the Federation. This process will try to show its impact more over time. Russia’s outskirts will try to build economic relations with neighboring countries and deepen existing ones.

Another reason for the non-Russians to break away from Russia is that most of those killed in the war against Ukraine were from the outskirts of the empire. Although this situation has not yet had a significant impact on the mood of the outlying areas, it will have serious social consequences after the war.

The mass protests over the arrest of Governor Furgal in the Khabarovsk region two years ago and the environmental problems created by Moscow in a number of regions are further evidence that Russia is likely to be divided into several small Russian-speaking states. After the defeat in the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s desire to come under the rule of Moscow, which is perceived as an exploitative greed in the outskirts of Russia, will intensify.

All this indicates that the Russian Federation is very likely to be divided into nation-states, but also raises concerns that the inevitable collapse of Russia will have tragic consequences if the West is not ready. Therefore, the West must clarify the fate of Russia in the new world order triggered by the war in Ukraine. To do this, a plan must be prepared similar to the “Morgentau Plan” proposed by Henry Morgenthau, the US Secretary of the Treasury during World War II, which provides for the partition of Germany, the transfer of important industrial areas to international control and disarmament. The development of this plan should be based on the new world order proposed by the United Kingdom. The states that will replace Russia must be obliged to renounce the threat of war and the use of force as a means of resolving disputes.

Second, the Russian state, which will be created in the place of Russia, should be deprived of maintaining the army, and only the creation of self-defense forces should be allowed. Most importantly, nuclear warheads must be taken under international control and destroyed. The destruction of Russia’s nuclear arsenal could be a major boost to the world’s nuclear disarmament.

After the collapse of the Russian Empire, economic growth is very important to ensure peace and stability in the region. The corrupt systems that have dominated the region for many years have made economic development impossible. In order to ensure economic development in the new era, perfect transparency mechanisms must be created to prevent corruption. Finally, in order to achieve economic development in the region, free trade zones must be created, and the region’s natural resources must be accessible to all peoples.

Khagani Jafarli

Platform Supportto Ukraine for Democracy