Since February 24, both the Tatar and Bashkir movements have evolved in a certain way. More and more representatives of our peoples understand what fate the Russian Reich is preparing for them in the event it is preserved. There appear more seditious thoughts that the Tatars and Bashkirs are not cannon fodder, they say, the war is not ours, etc. The most daring figures go even further – the war is a chance to create the independent states.
The next stage of evolution is to move from the bold thoughts to the bold actions. Critics always appear at this stage, arguing that it is too early to act – Russia is too strong. When Russia loses, we will have our say.
This approach has two serious drawbacks that people of bold thoughts do not take into account:
1. Peoples, such as the Tatars and Bashkirs, who will be in the same boat with Russia until the very defeat end (that is, they will not be able to create an armed underground or real national units within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, like the Chechens, even before the defeat of the Russian Federation), will go to the bottom together with the Russian boat. Ukraine and the allies will talk to them as to the losers, because these national movements will not have time to form as a force.
2. As of today, the Bashkirs and Tatars are afraid to shed their blood for the freedom of their peoples, for the independence of their states – they are already fighting and shedding their blood for the Russian Reich. That is, one way or another, it is impossible to get away from this war – the people suffer losses. How many Tatars and Bashkirs died fighting against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? Zero. And how many of them died, became crippled, prolonging the life of the empire and Putin’s power?
In addition to these drawbacks, there is also a very big Tatar-Bashkir delusion. It also applies to the Erzya, and to the invisible Chuvash, Mari, Udmurts. Like, “quilted jackets” are dying, we are protecting the patriots of our people, and when the “Hour X” comes, then we will declare ourselves.
Friends! With a high degree of probability, the future of post-war Russia will be decided with the participation of Ukraine and Western countries. It is Kyiv that will determine the parameters of the agreement that will be signed at the end of the war (and also with whom this agreement will be signed). Ukraine and the allies will put forward the conditions to Russia, and not national movements, which are not visible now and which do not declare themselves in any way. Yes, there will be exceptions – Chechnya and Dagestan. Already, Ukrainian and Western politicians are putting these territories out of the picture when talking about Russia. There are grounds for this in the form of subjectivity.
To think that Ukraine and the West will create the mandated Idel-Ural and introduce peacekeeping troops there, will create states for the Tatars and Bashkirs is naivety. Most likely, history will repeat again – in the matter of state building they will help those who will fight (regardless of the population and territories). Those who was not fight at the time of the defeat of the Russian Federation will not have anything to hope for – in fact, as it was in the previous phase of the empire collapse.
The Estonians were helped in 1918 not because “they had access to the external borders”, but because the Estonians created an army and began to fight. If you are not ready to fight, why should somebody help you? Even if you are in many times more than Estonians – what’s the point? People help the brave and determined.