Now what?

The House of Representatives in the American Congress anyway voted to provide military assistance to Ukraine. The Senate followed them. The final version of the law on this issue is being prepared. One of these days, Biden will sign it – and a flow of weapons will flow into Ukraine, which is at war with “our” country: lethal high-tech weapons, ammunition, vehicles, equipment, etc., etc.

Separately, we can recall ATACMS missiles, really valued by Ukrainian rocket troops and really irritating for Russian military commanders and politicians. Although in relation to Lavrov, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, and especially to Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, the wording “irritating” is not entirely correct. They are simply furious with disappointment and “peeing with boiling water” because of unfulfilled expectations. An analogy can be made with the collapse of Putin’s bets on the presidency of V. Yanukovych in 2004, when Vladimirovich three times congratulated the Ukrainian a man who “three times was not in prison” on his election to the post of head of state. But in the end, he flew past the presidency like the proverbial Parisian plywood, leaving poor Putin in the position of a “straw widow”.

Returning to ATACMS, we should pause and clarify that the American missiles of this system previously supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine were slightly different, namely, they hit at a distance of 160 km. Those that, in accordance with the decision of the US Congress, will now be transferred (unless the super-cautious Biden imposes a presidential veto for fear of harming US national security with such supplies), have a range of action almost twice as large (300 km)!

It means that

“death from heaven” for the Russian military at any point on the Ukrainian front becomes much more real than the right hand of God (may the most merciful Allah forgive me for such an allegory). God is merciful, but the rocket troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may not have such mercy for the Muscovite occupiers.

It is not customary for the “Khokhol” (Ukrainian) military to demonstratively cut off the ears, genitals and heads of prisoners (at least I have never seen such videos about Ukrainians – unlike Russian ones), but to be honest, I would not count on some kind of sentimentality from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Of course, the Russian Oboronprom does not stand still – new factories are being built, new technologies are being developed, new specialists are being attracted, a new “work shift” is being prepared… Soon nostalgic and patriotic photos of WWII may appear in the Russian media: a 12-year-old teenager at a lathe, producing shells while standing on a wooden box. This all is good for fueling jingoism, but there is one “but”! Dagger missiles, the pride of V. Putin, turned out to be a little different from what he threatened several years before their appearance. Maybe that is why people who participated in their development are being held criminally liable? And the Armata tank somehow turned out to be a little inconsistent with the promises… And there are other cases of sad differences between what was promised and what was received. As the late Zhvanetsky wrote back in the distant Soviet times, “…they fulfilled it, exceeded it, improved it, perfected it, but when you turn it on, it does not work!”

In our country it is always and everywhere like this. Well, like with the dam in Orsk – it seemed they were building an architectural masterpiece, a modern citadel of reliability, but it turned out to be a one and a half meter embankment, which (ha ha ha) was “eaten through by rodents”… And in the system of lies, negligence, fraud and embezzlement common to the whole country, the Oboronprom cannot be an exception, because… because – “that is where we stand!”

Simply put, the Russian Ministry of Defense does not have the necessary technologies in sufficient quantities to combat ATACMS. There are rocket and space forces, but there are no necessary technologies at the right moment! And there are not always enough specialists to successfully combat malicious ATACMS. Rocket troop specialists are one-of-a-kind, expensive commodities, requiring several years of training. And among the 450,000 Russian irretrievable military losses, there were probably quite a few soldiers from rocket troops and air defense.

And remember how many of our planes our craftsmen shot down  – they set “friendly fire” records! And, by the way, how many missiles have our bombers already lost over Belgorod and other Russian cities? In short, these American super-efficient missiles are a special headache! “Shoigu, Gerasimov, where is the air defense?!!!”

In addition to these unpleasant new products, the new American aid package contains others. For example, the decision to use significant financial assets belonging to Russia and arrested in the United States. This is true, by the way. Who will count this money now – crazy oil and gas dollars, they went just as they came … And there is no reason to regret!

Well, the conclusion naturally suggests itself about (attention, Tatars) the expansion of the possibilities to use Ukrainian UAVs. What a surprise, what a frustrating disappointment – these funny “Khokhol” Untermenschs (underpeople) still know how to create and build something of their own, and they do it quite well. Mr. Lavrov is in shock, Mr. Medvedev is hysterical! To test with a demonstration effect (as it is now fashionable to say: two in one), the Main Directorate of Intelligence and the Security Service of Ukraine have already struck both the Kremlin and Alabuga, and at Russian military facilities located a thousand kilometers away from the front line, not to mention Rostov and Kursk. In connection with this, the government officials of the Russian Federation were given a command to increase the degree of intimidating  the foreign partners of Ukraine with “nuclear ash” – the level of horror stories by Skabeeva and Solovyov no longer gives the desired effect.

Of course, European and other friends of Ukrainians who live according to international rules constantly weigh the degree of nuclear hysteria of the Russian Federation: will it use it or not? On the one hand, Western analysts come to the conclusion that Putin’s psychotype is suitable for the role of a murderous maniac, ready to press the red button when backed into a corner…

On the other hand… I remember the ironic statement of the famous Soviet film director Alexei German about the fearless Jewish pirates who went out to the last, merciless, decisive, mortal battle under the black filibuster flag… But just in case, they hid a white flag in the locker.

So is Putin, who declares red lines for the Armed Forces of Ukraine… For example, about the Crimean border: just try to cross, just get in there! Russian Sevastopol! Untouchable Kerch bridge! Not a moment of hesitation! Everyone – into nuclear ashes! You will all die, and we will go to heaven! Seven people, hold me!

It is horrible, scary, paralyzing just at the thought! But how does this fit in with the fact that the Russian Federation is already building an overland railway line from Crimea to Donbass? What about the bridge? It turns out, the “rail” is being laid just in case? At the very least, it looks strange…

At the moment, it is clear: the war, even after American assistance and ATACMS in favor of Ukraine, is unlikely to end – Russia is too big, it has accelerated too much in the military race, the mobilization resource is too extensive, and it is used unlimitedly. It is too significant for Putin – it is existential. But it is also clear that Ukraine is not leaving the path of the death race, they are not going to give in and are also arming themselves. They prepare, make efforts and exert themselves.

Sun Tzu wrote that the one who lasts 15 minutes longer will win the war. And it is not necessarily the strongest and most armed…

Motivation is very important. And why should Russia (exactly the state and the people, and not a mad bunker rat) participate in this unsporting competition? So answer yourself, after thinking it over thoroughly… Are you ready to pay such a Putin price? The Ukrainians seem to be ready, they have no other choice… And what about you? And specifically you, reader?

What did Alabuga and Nizhnekamsk lack? How bad was it for them to live without war? Everything seemed to be fine, but the war was missing! Life must have been insipid without explosions, without casualties, without air raids?

Tatars, what is your benefit in this war? Just, in order to avoid pathos, understand that you will continue to be bombed, with a tendency of increasing hits, destruction, and casualties. Too many military production facilities have been built in Tatarstan – who will leave them alone? So Budanov (the Main Directorate of Intelligence) and Malyuk (the Security Service of Ukraine) do not have the moral right to leave the Tatar cities alone. This, of course, is not a promise of “nuclear ash,” but troubles in my native republic should not be ruled out at all, it would be illogical…

What else can I say, dear fellow countrymen? Get ready – you agreed for this! Get ready…