Many international reviewers have suggested that in the event of Russia’s military defeat in Ukraine and a subsequent period of instability with the further possible breakup of Russia, it will not be the liberal imperialists who may come to power in the country, but even more rampant chauvinists with avowedly fascist views. The option of Putin stepping into the shadows and nominating Ramzan Kadyrov as the Savior of the Fatherland is being considered. Little chance? So be it, but tell me, who could object if siloviki (influential figures in law enforcement and security agencies) headed by terrified Putin wanted to preserve their feeder country this way? The candidate is quite suitable for the role of the executioner of All Russia, and willing to give personal guarantees. Chechens can keep their word.
Let’s imagine Tsar Kadyrov pulling entire Chechnya to Moscow (and no doubt all Chechens, regardless of their political affiliation, will support their compatriot). “Ramzan Akhmatovich is able “to restore order”. It’s not just about hushing dissent, it’s about cutting off dissenters’ tongues. Everyone will be forced to go to the front without exception, and the war will take longer – a perfect pretext for tightening the regime, looking for allies and creating new coalitions with similarly disfavored countries. You can play the selected game for a very long time, the safety margin is maintained.
So, the sort of a renewed Stalin who half of Russia is crying for even now will be reigning. And the people will be happy on top of that. By the way he may also be supported by the Muslim community in Russia, some of whom he will be able to win to his side (through promises of building the Great Caliphate, career surges, threats and cruelty, or simply money). Russians will be given the decorative role of the “titular nation,” and in fact they will be left slaves as they are now.The most vigorous among those who call themselves Russians will simply be wiped out or broken, the intelligentsia will be “swept under the carpet” and sent to “correction camps”. By and large, things will develop in the same way as they always have in Russia, but only harder, more uncompromisingly, without hesitation. I would even say, they will make it hot for Mother Russia dashingly and valiantly (Caucasus natives love it – to show themselves off, to demonstrate their valor and heroism to the public) and for a long time.
So, the liberal imperial Navalny and his ilk are not the worst choice. You can talk to him about problematic policies. In case of disagreement, you can appeal to international authorities, sue to international courts, and win progressive politicians-Russians over to their side. It is to be hoped that liberals will defer to dissenters’ opinions at least to some extent, bring election procedures closer to well-established international standards, and the courts – closer to the principles of incorruptibility and fairness. There will emerge hope for spurts of real local self-government, and in the long term – nascent signs of development of genuine democracy. My speculations are based on the assumption of a possible “prolonged breakup of the empire,” where processes of no, not transformation, but breakup will be undermining the foundations for over a number of years. Where national entities will be biting off the pie of imperial sovereignty, piece by piece, carving out the right to an independent life, as it happened in the British Empire.
But in our case, we should remember the main thing: the hypothetical liberal Russia is still not Great Britain.
The Russian slave, as the basis of the imperial foundation, needs a myth of greatness in order to keep from self-decay; otherwise, if he wakes up one morning and does not find a Great Russia around him, he might as well bang his head against a brick wall because of the prospect of a meaningless and insignificant existence!
Therefore, even liberal imperialists are unlikely to go the British way and voluntarily give the right to self-determination to colonial peoples. They will rather evolve either toward fascism or toward breakup.
I don’t even want to think about the second option – Kadyrov’s one. It is a nightmare dream come true, although as an alternative to the breakup of Great Russia it may satisfy many Great Russian slaves.
Perhaps, dear reader, you do not like both options. Needless to say, I don’t like them much either. This is why I should note that the “cases” proposed for our consideration are merely a pretext for analyzing the situation in Russia on the eve of possible changes. The future of the national entities that currently form our country depends, to a large extent, on our activity. A window of opportunity for struggle is being opened up. At such a moment, a synchronized, strong statement of burning demands has a better chance of being heard. In case the authorities are deaf to the acute issues raised, the struggling active part of the population of the republic gets an opportunity to exercise, together with the people, their right to change the state structure, the form of government and the political regime in the republic, decide on joining/not joining interstate associations, etc. That is, the people get the full power.
If the moment is lost, I’m afraid we should consider the possibility of living in the Dark Empire.
It only seems to us that we are already familiar with all forms of fascism. In fact, there is still plenty of room for misanthropic creativity here.
So don’t miss the moment, compatriots. And most importantly! Stop this petty squabbling! Remember how Stalin “reconciled” the entire Caucasus, people immediately rushed to embrace each other, even though they continued sulking and feeling angry surreptitiously. Such a “peace” is still a woe to everyone, but under the threat of a Kolyma concentration camp, one would agree to more than that.
So: wait, prepare, fight, and unite!
Russia, RF, future, breakup of Russia, Navalny, Kadyrov, empire